Warren Buffet's Annual Letter to Shareholders.

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2014ltr.pdf

TO RAISE OR NOT TO RAISE?

US indicators out this week, like the Chicago PMI and the CPI estimates, support both sides of a US turn-around, the output side and the consumption side. Yet still the FED, though widely expected to raise rates in the summer, remains tight-lipped about it, downplaying positive economic indicators. This sounds like policy speak for 'we want to keep the option in our pocket,' and there is good reason.

While the UK and the US have been running the money tap seemingly forever, at least since 1929 part-two, the great depression strikes back, the rest of the known world, and the unknown world, is starting to catch up. The euro area and Japan are the prime late-comers to the easy money party, but actually, of some 72 policy move making economies, followed by Central Bank News, 48 lowered rates during the last year. 

Everybody wants to crash their currency and tweak their current account to surplus by pushing the demand side with exports. 

Yet, as Martin Wolf pointed out in his Feb 17th Financial Times article, "...income and spending has to add up across the world economy." Somebody will have to widen their trade and current account deficits to fund those surpluses. That somebody is the US and that is one reason Janet Yellen may want to keep her options open.