Smaller Trade Deals, More Trade

                                                                  --Trends Global, Feb 23 2018.

Rarely have free trade debaters--on all sides--had better opportunities to wag tongues. The long-standing era of free trade deals that in Canada started with the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement in 1987 (CUSFTA), superseded by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, has run squarely into a pronounced US protectionist revival that glaringly threatens the now deeply integrated global trade regime. This is not, by the way, an uncontested protectionist movement. Free trade agreements around the world are at all-time highs. In Canada alone, since the almost politically contemptible battle for NAFTA took place decades ago, there have been no fewer than 13 trade deals  signed--14 if you count the Agreement on Internal Trade superseded by the  Canadian Free Trade Agreement. And there are good reasons for all this deal-making,  free trade by the numbers has been a success.

Cobalt: Attractive, But Not Without Its Downsides

                                                                  --Trends Global, Feb 20th 2018.

The price of a metric ton of cobalt, the precious metal used in lithium batteries, increased 60% in the last year to $81,500 USD, a 264% increase since its all time low in February of 2016. Higher prices have lifted present valuations of cobalt bearing properties and attracted capital into the metal. Typically, when a commodity booms in price supply increases until the price falls. In 2017, however, analysts predicted high prices through 2022, based on supply-side restrictions. Many of those analysts are now adjusting their price expectations downward. While there are still reasons to be bullish on cobalt, there are more and more reasons to believe the metal is overpriced.

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

                                                                       --Trends Global, Feb 12th 2018.

Despite what some people will tell you, the recent sell-off in the stock market was not a result of rising bond yields (as I said before rising bond yields are more likely to have delayed the sell-off). Yes, bond yields now are more volatile, and so are stocks; and yes, money moving between the two and from the sidelines has an impact on that volatility; but, there are two stronger theories, in my opinion, explaining the sell-off now.

Newton's Stock Market

                                                                                   --Trends Global, Jan 23 2018.

Natural sciences in usual circumstances are wonderfully predictable; what goes up must come down. Economists since Walras have been promoting the profitable illusion that economics is a natural science. Today, more than anytime in history, that charade is obviously bunk. US stocks have gone up but not down. This has analysts, traders, economists, and pretty much everyone else asking the same questions. Why aren't they coming down? When will they? Should I buy US stocks?